Recovery will start (WHEN) and take (HOW LONG)!
- When will the recovery start and how long will it take?
- Which of our business borrowers have the legs to hang in there that long?
- What steps can the bank take to support those who can make it and recognize those who cannot as quickly as possible?
Bill Conerly is an economist and consultant to business and banking who is addressing five Washington Bankers Association conferences this year. He is the author of ‘From the Headlines to Your Bottomline: How to Profit in Any Economic Cycle‘.
I spoke with Bill this week and he predicts the economy — in terms of
employment, production and spending — may hit rock bottom in April.
“The stock market usually turns around before the economy…but it can
be anywhere from three months earlier to six months later.” I guess
that shoots down the plan to predict the recovery from what is
happening in the stock market.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in ‘Banks Need More Capital‘, an article in this weeks Economist,
did not get more specific. “Markets are being suppressed by a degree of
fear not experienced since the early 20th century (1907 and 1932 come
to mind). Human nature being what it is, we can count on a market
reversal, hopefully, within six
months to a year.”
Which are you focused on with your business borrowers?
- How are you going to make it through the downturn?
- What are the opportunities in this market and what are you doing now to profit from the challenges of your competitors?
- What steps are you taking to position your company for the recovery?
Looking at the opportunities could be a very interesting conversation…
Related Posts
September 18, 2009 What business strategies should your borrowers pursue in the recovery?- July 7, 2009 Zions Bankcorp economist weighs in on the recovery
- March 18, 2009 Is Greed the Problem? Milton Friedman's opinion
- April 3, 2009 9 Questions from Recession-Racked Business Owners and How the Banker Might Answer Them
Just as it looks really gloomy is the time to do your contingency planning for a recovery. Here are my four steps for economic contingency planning applied to an upturn.
1. Estimate how much your sales will improve in an upturn.
2. Look for indicators of the upturn you can monitor; make sure you are looking at indicators close to your industry or market, rather than general economic trends.
3. Sketch out specific action steps you’ll take when sales improve. This could include hiring additional staff, adding capacity, getting credit lines in place, etc.
4. Manage your business every day to preserve the flexibility to take those action steps when the time comes.
Linda, thanks for the kind words.